Administrative shifts within the Liberal Democratic Party
After a series of political scandals under Kishida’s administration and plummeting approval ratings, the strategic move of electing a new leader and thus PM within the LDP aimed to restore trust among the Japanese population through the general elections. Kishida’s resignation followed the stepping down of other political figures, notably Internal Affairs Minister Junji Suzuki and Agriculture Minister Ichiro Miyashita in 2023, after allegations of fraud coming from missing fundraising proceeds in the party’s accounts. Public discontent and distrust led to the stepping down also of Mr. Kishida, announced in August 2024.
Overall, Kishida is considered to have positively impacted Japanese foreign relations by increasing efforts with external partners, for instance by hosting the G7 in 2023, visiting Ukraine as an act of solidarity after the Russian invasion, and warming relations with South Korea. However, tipping domestic politics led to shifting power dynamics and the appointment of new LDP Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
Former Defence Minister Ishiba was officially elected within the party on 1 October 2024 with 215 out of 415 votes, following a tight race against Koizumi Shinjiro, a Member of the House of Representatives and Former Minister of the Environment. Ishiba’s leadership appears to focus on strengthening Japan’s defence capabilities. So far, he advocated for the establishment of an Asian NATO to enhance regional collective security; suggested the stationnement of members of Japan’s Self Defence Forces in the US; and visited Taiwan in August 2024 to engage in security discussions with president Lai Ching-te on current developments in the maritime straits and Japan-Taiwan ties. Domestically, Ishiba announced his plans to address issues related to financial irregularities within the party, aiming to regain public trust.
Following the example of his predecessor Kishida in 2021, soon after his appointment as new PM Ishiba called for snap parliamentary elections, which were held on 27 October 2024. The general elections represented a testing moment for the LDP’s confidence among the population, with Ishiba intending to signal the solidity of his mandate after the recent scandals in order to pursue his policy agenda.
Outcomes of the October 2024 Election
Despite the LDP’s great confidence that Ishiba and the party would win the general elections, it lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in 15 years. The LDP, which held 247 seats, saw its representation drop to 191. Together with its junior coalition partner Komeito, they obtained a total of 215 seats in the lower house of parliament, falling short of the 233 seats required for a majority. Meanwhile, the opposition’s Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) gained 50 seats, obtaining a total of 148. The election results highlighted the critical dissatisfaction of the Japanese population towards the LDP following the political scandals; challenges affecting low income households; contemporary struggles with inflation; and the drop of the Yen’s currency value, yet noting a higher minimum wage and economic revitalisation.
Source: Nikkei Asia
In reaction to the election results, Ishiba declared in a press statement that “The LDP has received an extremely harsh judgement, We accept it from voters solemnly and earnestly. The LDP will reflect from the bottom of its heart, and must be reborn”, admitting that the party failed in addressing people’s doubts and distrust.
The party has been in power for most of the time since 1955, and non-stop since 2009. Its loss hence represents a destabilising event within Japanese politics. There is looming uncertainty for the government that will form, which will likely be composed by various parties. The timing of these events may not be the best, also from a global perspective, considering the 5 November 2024 US elections and the re-election of Donald Trump as President.
According to Japanese law, a special parliamentary session to elect the next premier must be held within 30 days subsequent to the lower house elections. In these 30 days, the leaders will need to converge a grouping that can reach the majority and form a government. According to Kyodo News, the vote for the next PM may be held on 11 November 2024. The LDP may need to seek cooperation with other political parties and consider growing the coalition. At the same time, during these 30 days also the PCD is likely to try and convince other parties to join them in a coalition to form a government. Speculations have already been made on Ishiba potentially stepping down from his position as PM. Yet, he declined the suppositions to avoid a complete political vacuum. In a press statement at the LDP headquarters, he rejected the possibility of the LDP coalition with Komeito’s enlargement, rather being keen to find agreements and ad hoc alliances on individual issues and adopt policies of opposition parties that have gained popularity among the population. Besides this there have been speculations that to secure his term, Ishiba may consider reinstating LDP members previously ousted due to financial scandals. However, this scenario would incline an undesired culture of party protection which could further undermine his leadership.
What to Expect of Future EU-Japan Relations?
Despite being long-standing and going strong, Japan’s internal instability may impact its bilateral relations with the EU and its member states, which are traditionally grounded in common interests and values, notably concerning human rights, democracy, multilateralism and a commitment to the international rules-based order. Additionally, EU-Japan relations rely on solid trade relations and robust bilateral agreements, such as the 2018 Strategic Partnership Agreement, the 2019 Economic Partnership Agreement, and the recently inaugurated Security and Defence Partnership of 1 November 2024, signalling firm and resilient cooperation efforts. Nevertheless, amid Japan’s shifting focus toward domestic politics, in addition to bolstering closer regional defence alliances with the US and other allies, the EU may still face a comparatively less prominent role in Japan’s foreign policy agenda under Ishiba. Some expectations on impacts for EU-Japan relations emerge as Ishiba’s policy focus appears to prioritise East Asian regional security issues and enhancing ties with external partners, such as the US and China, leaving the European Union to play a potential secondary role.
Even if relations between Japan and the EU have historically been strong and of imperative importance, to avoid the potential risk of being left out, the EU could take proactive action to position itself more prominently within Ishiba’s vision as a strategic, reliable partner in various aspects and sectors, such as regarding supply chain resilience, technological cooperation and innovation, space security, and trade. The newly signed EU-Japan Security and Defence Partnership is already a key step in the right direction. Furthermore, Ishiba’s willingness to restore governmental transparency aligns with the EU’s commitment to democratic governance, potentially opening a new communication channel on governance. Japan being the 4th largest global economy, it is of crucial importance for the EU to adopt a flexible and pragmatic approach to remain a valid, valuable partner for Japan amid its regional recalibration efforts, also in light of the EU’s de-risking efforts and envisaged strategic autonomy. By focusing on digitalisation, green technology, and maritime security, the EU could accentuate its strengths and even expand its strategic partnership with Japan, countering potential common strategic and security risks, while avoiding becoming a lower priority on Japan’s agenda. Against the background of the US Presidential Election results, a further enhancement of EU-Japan bilateral partnership would be significantly beneficial, also for Japan. Trump’s “America First” policy, with its transactional diplomacy and economic unilateralism has already fostered “collateral damage” for Japan during his first presidency. The re-election of Trump worries Japan also given its potential impacts on regional security dynamics where Japan may be left out of decision-making regarding the area and its closest neighbourhood. Given the importance of the US as a key partner for Japan, the unpredictability of its leadership under Donald Trump could motivate Japanese policymakers to explore a further diversification of its alliances, including the potential deepening of its ties with the EUThe moment could be right for the EU to advance its relations with Japan, given potential upcoming complexities with the US. Yet, since Ishiba’s leadership has yet to be confirmed and domestic power politics are still at play, the EU should carefully monitor impending developments in Japanese politics that may also impact the country’s foreign policies and international diplomacy. Overall, the EU and Japan share a great deal of common interests, are strong, like-minded partners and bolster solid potential to strengthen their relations in a wide variety of sectors, if both partners are ready to commit themselves to forge a more significant level of collaboration.
Author: Valeria Tabelli, EIAS Junior Researcher
Photo credits: Pixabay