Tensions are flaring up between Japan and China in ways more reminiscent of the days of Shinzō Abe. The latter was a controversial figure in Asia and often butted heads with China and its leadership. However, after a period of relative normality in which Japan has tried to figure out the way forward amidst a leadership crisis, an age-old method has reared its head, provoking China. With a new prime minister (PM), has Japan again found itself at odds with its old foe? Is Japan again just repeating its old missteps?
On 7 November 2025, newly appointed Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that a Chinese blockade or other action against Taiwan could prompt a Japanese military response. The comments arose during a parliamentary session where Takaichi responded to questions. The response marked a new position for Japan on regional conflicts, and the decision by the new Japanese Prime Minister to involve Japan in a possible conflict involving Taiwan is a step beyond her predecessors’. The Chinese response was prompted immediately. China’s Consul General in Osaka, Xue Jian, criticised the comments a day later in a now-deleted post on X, stating, ‘We have no choice but to cut off that dirty neck that has been lunged at us without hesitation. Are you ready?’ The Chinese foreign ministry warned of a ‘crushing defeat’ if Japan interfered with Taiwan, and the two sides have summoned foreign dignitaries to discuss the escalating frictions. The rise in tensions has emerged as Takaichi has taken a harder-line stance on foreign policy. But in some sense, this seems not entirely unexpected. To some, Takaichi’s decisions are in line with the foreign policy of the former Prime Minister Shinzō Abe.
Japan Finding its Footing
Abe was often described as a controversial figure, largely due to his willingness to engage with issues tied to Japan’s imperial history. In 2013, Abe posed for a picture sitting in a T-4 training jet of the Japanese Self-Defence Force (JSDF), with the number 731 painted on the side. The picture was circulated widely and faced major reactions in Asia. The number 731 is most commonly related to the infamous Unit 731, a unit in the Imperial Japanese Military, known for its use of live civilians as subjects for chemical experiments. These civilians were taken from occupied territories, like occupied Korea and China. In total, Unit 731 is considered responsible for over 200,000 deaths. The fact that the Japanese Prime Minister would bring this history back onto the global stage was, for many in Asia, a step too far. But for Abe, it was only one step of many.
Abe also started the habit of Japanese prime ministers visiting Yasukuni Shrine, a shrine to soldiers dying in service to Japan. It enshrines both soldiers from the 1868 Boshin war, but also Imperial Japanese soldiers from the Second World War who took part in war crimes. Additionally, it honours Dr. Radhabinod Pal, a member of the judge panel overseeing the Tokyo trials. Pal was famous for refusing to convict any of the Japanese officials on trial, as he believed the trials were simply for show and revenge, not justice. The first visit Abe made, in December 2013, marked the first time a Japanese prime minister had taken part in a visit. What used to be controversial has now become a regular occurrence, with prime ministers sending offerings.
Anyhow, some of this hostility and posturing has softened in recent years. Kishida reached out to old neighbours and somewhat warmed the cold relationships. Joint military exercises with South Korea and efforts to expand Japanese military exports have led some to consider Japan a more reliable ally on security issues, for example, in Southeast Asia. Under Abe, Japan was seen more as a US ally, but ‘insensitive’ in Asia as Japan relied on its position, US military support, economic and military size, and technological advantages. But the continued rise of China, the expansion of the Chinese navy, Russia growing closer to China, new challenges created by the DPRK, and increased pressure on Taiwan, have made Japan more wary. Wary not only of being left alone, but also uncertain of its own ability to counter China. This pressure has led Japan to grow closer to its Asian allies. However, Japan is facing issues of its own.
Abe’s Legacy
Japan has, ever since the resignation of Shinzō Abe, struggled to redefine its identity and footing. A string of moderate and senior legislators within the dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has caused Japan to stumble with its own identity and path forward. And even in the beginning, there was a choice to be made: Abe or not Abe. When Shinzō Abe first came to power, he was just another politician taking control of a nation in disarray. Japan had experienced the popping of the Japanese bubble and was lost in its response. Abe was elected first in 2006, then resigned in 2007, citing health issues. He would then be elected again in 2012 and served as Japan’s longest-serving prime minister from 2012 until his resignation in 2020. After this resignation, he was followed by prime ministers hoping to improve relations with Japan’s neighbours. Yoshihide, Kishida, and Ishiba were all moderate, senior members of the LDP, choosing to slowly reach out to allies, rejecting the firebrand persona of Abe. Gone were the fights and controversies (though the visits to Yasukuni continued), as instead Japan was moving towards warming relations and ‘politics as usual.’
Yet, as Ishiba stepped down, Sanae Takaichi emerged—a devout follower of Abe. She has shown a willingness to engage in controversy, just like Abe, and to stoke anger and displeasure on the Asian mainland, mainly driven by domestic political purposes. And while her target is, for now, China, this might change. Even though her projections of potentially engaging in a conflict over Taiwan are plagued by the same issues that plagued Abe.
The Japanese constitution is special in that, since the aftermath of WW II, it contains a core principle for Japan to remain a pacifist nation. Japan is therefore bound to Article 9, which requires the country to reject the use of force to resolve international disputes. Japan had no standing army until the Korean War, when the US pressured Japan to develop the National Police Reserve (NPR). This would eventually become the JSDF. Nevertheless, as Abe took power in 2012, he set his sights on the JSDF and Article 9. Abe’s administration sought to support the JSDF and push the organisation up to the breaking point of Article 9. Japan is prohibited from maintaining weapons of war, but the JSDF has, in recent years, expanded its capabilities to areas that balance on the verge of violating that principle. Aerial refuelling and deploying fixed-wing aircraft from naval vessels are widely seen as capabilities that expand the operational reach of the JSDF. Therefore, they only apply as offensive weapons. The Japanese Supreme Court has been reluctant to rule on this issue, which has led Japan to expand its military posture beyond what was previously considered appropriate. However, Abe never took the JSDF to the conclusion of this policy: offensive conflict.
Takaichi responded to a question from an opposition lawmaker, when referring to Chinese actions on Taiwan, that ‘If it involves the use of warships and military actions, it could by all means become a survival-threatening situation.’ This framing sets out that an attack or blockade of Taiwan might threaten the survival of Japan, classifying any action to counter such an attack as potential self-defence. The justification that any attack on Taiwan would be a ‘survival-threatening situation’ is somewhat shaky, but might be enough for the Supreme Court. And while there may be challenges, there is a precedent for the Supreme Court to stay out of sensitive political questions. No matter what the decision is, or whether there are any actions undertaken by China on Taiwan, the constitutional issue would have to be addressed. And with that, Takaichi would take another step into Abe’s footsteps.
The Dream Meets Reality
Ever since Shinzō Abe tried to start the process of changing the constitution, public support for changing the constitution has grown. Nevertheless, the final steps to amend the constitution were never taken, as when Abe faced health problems and resigned. It is unknown if Takaichi would take up this fight as well, as she has been an ardent supporter of Abe for years. If so, we would see Japan move to become a regional security player beyond its current scope. Japan would also have to decide how it would wield this power. Moreover, it is to be expected that the US could be supportive of such an effort, as it would welcome another US-aligned counterweight to China in the region, while Taiwan would welcome another military ally in the region.
Takaichi opened fresh wounds when she set foot into the security situation in the Indo-Pacific. She challenged Chinese ambitions, comforted Taiwanese worries, and started her excursion down the path Shinzō Abe walked so many years ago. A single comment made during a parliamentary session could lead down a path of constitutional change, regional competition, diplomatic fallout, and perhaps even direct confrontation with one of the world’s largest militaries and economies. However, like her predecessors, she will be facing a set of hurdles. Hence, the question is whether she will be able to stay in the fight long enough to see her ambitions through.
Author: Kasper Danielsen, EIAS Associate Researcher
Photo Credits: Wikimedia Commons