The Depleting Water Levels of the Caspian Sea: Why the Choice to Hold COP29 in Baku is So Pertinent

The Caspian Sea is gaining increasing centrality in new trade routes between Asia and Europe playing a fundamental role in promoting economic connectivity between the two regions. The conflict in Ukraine and the rising tensions in the Middle East and Red Sea have highlighted the vulnerability of current supply chains for essential commodities. Consequently, it has underscored the potential significance of the Caspian Sea and its surrounding states — especially Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan — whose energy reserves and potentials could help the EU diversify away from reliance on the Russian energy sector. Additionally, these countries are expected to play a crucial role in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the ‘Middle Corridor.’

The TITR aims to integrate the economies of Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Europe to transport goods while bypassing Russian territory. Thus, the ‘Greater Caspian Region’ and its littoral states have emerged as a geoeconomic linchpin amidst the ongoing geopolitical instability in the region.

Nevertheless, the Caspian Sea faces an impending ecological crisis. In addition to longstanding challenges like overfishing and pollution from petrochemical exploration, it now also confronts emerging threats related to water loss and increasing salinity. Changes in the Caspian’s water levels have significant environmental and socioeconomic impacts, including damage to coastal businesses, loss of livelihoods, forced migration, and infrastructure deterioration which could far outweigh any trade benefits the Middle Corridor might bring.

Author: Luca Urciuolo, EIAS Associate Research Fellow

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