The Middle Corridor’s Reality Check: Advancements and Challenges in Port Infrastructure in the Greater Caspian Region

Recent geopolitical upheavals, including Russia’s war in Ukraine and the escalating Houthi threat in the Red Sea, have reignited interest in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the ‘Middle Corridor.’ The corridor puts the Caspian Sea and Greater Caspian Region at the centre of transcontinental transport links by offering an alternative to the longer and politically compromised New Eurasian Land Bridge (NELB) or ‘Northern Corridor’ that crosses Russia. This new multimodal ‘Middle’ corridor connects China and Europe by traversing China, Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus and the Black Sea before reaching the EU in just 15 days. Beyond offering strategic diversification away from Russia and traditional sea routes, the TITR enables the Central Asian and South Caucasus states to foster economic growth and regional development to create robust and efficient logistical networks.

According to the World Bank, the volumes of goods along the Middle Corridor are expected to triple by 2030, reaching 11 mt (million tonnes) annually, primarily due to economic growth in the Greater Caspian Region, which includes the South Caucasus and Central Asian countries. Given the strong interest from freight forwarders in using this route, the TITR has grown substantially, with cargo volumes rising by 63% in the first 11 months of 2024 to reach 4.1 mt, while container shipments surged by an impressive 2.6 times to 50,500 TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units). By the end of 2024, total freight volumes were expected to reach approximately 4.47 mt, with container traffic projected at approximately 55,000 TEUs. As trade along the Middle Corridor continues to expand rapidly, projections indicate that its transit capacity will reach 130,000 TEUs by 2040. This traffic could grow to as much as 1.4 million TEUs, plus an additional 470,000 TEUs of container traffic between the regional countries if existing bottlenecks are successfully removed.

This is where the strategic importance of the Caspian Sea comes into play. The Caspian Sea, the world’s largest inland body of water, covers an area of 392,600 km² divided into three regions—Northern, Middle and Southern—each characterised by distinct geological features, ranging from the shallow shelves of the northern section to depths exceeding 1,000 metres in the south. Ports like Aktau and Kuryk in Kazakhstan, Turkmenbashi in Turkmenistan and Baku/Alat in Azerbaijan are vital hubs in this network linking the Greater Caspian Region with global markets. On average, the regional ports have a throughput capacity ranging from 5 to 17 mt per year. However, despite this relatively modest capacity, the infrastructure has yet to be fully utilised.

The expansion of infrastructure and capacity along the Middle Corridor is set to play a pivotal role in fostering economic growth and enhancing trade. The ports of the Caspian Sea serve as crucial gateways for international commerce and maximising their logistical potential is vital in strengthening the trade links between Europe and the Indo-Pacific. The Middle Corridor’s success underscores its rising significance within the global logistics network, solidifying its position as a key route for international trade and economic integration across the Greater Caspian Region.

Author: Luca Urciuolo, EIAS Associate Research Fellow

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Photo credits: Luca Urciuolo