Navigating Great-Power Rivalry: An Indo-Pacific Plus Strategy for the European Union

As transatlantic tensions deepen, the European Union faces a geopolitical environment increasingly shaped by great-power rivalry rather than stable multilateralism. At Davos 2026, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned that the rules-based order is weakening and that middle powers must respond through cooperational coalition-building rather than passive reliance on inherited institutions. Canada’s subsequent strategic tariff arrangement with China and the United Kingdom’s pragmatic reset with Beijing illustrate a broader trend of strategic hedging under US assertiveness. For the EU, the central question is whether to react with its own unilateral pivot, or to actively implement a coordinated Indo-Pacific coalition strategy that preserves resilience and strategic autonomy without drifting into dependency on either Washington or Beijing.

The European Union entered 2026 confronting an increasingly fractured geopolitical environment in which long-standing assumptions about NATO cohesion and overall transatlantic partnership are no longer as reliable as they were. Transatlantic relations, historically the cornerstone of Europe’s security and prosperity, are under visible strain during Trump 2.0. Trade tensions between Washington and European capitals have intensified, with renewed and repeated tariff disputes and threats of economic retaliation.

On security, debates over NATO burden-sharing and the future trajectory of support for Ukraine have further deepened the uncertainty. Former European Commission President José Manuel Barroso recently described Europe-US relations as being at their “lowest moment” since NATO’s founding, reflecting a shift from shared-value alignment to interest-driven transactionalism.

Author: Antonin Nenutil, EIAS Junior Researcher

READ THE POLICY BRIEF

Photo credits: wikimedia