The Maldives now finds itself at a critical juncture in the ongoing competition between India and China. Decisions made by its leadership will have significant implications for regional stability and the geopolitical equilibrium in the Indian Ocean Region. Pro-China President Mohamed Muizzu won office last year while campaigning on a pledge to reduce New Delhi’s influence in favour of a greater role for Beijing. This shift is exemplified by the Maldives’ recent expulsion of Indian military personnel, despite their significant contributions to emergency medical evacuations, anti-piracy missions, and maritime security. Muizzu’s diplomatic sequence—visiting Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and then China—marks a clear departure from the tradition of first visiting India, signalling a shift that has troubled New Delhi.
The Maldives’ geopolitical significance
The Maldives, commonly perceived as an idyllic paradise with its stunning coral beaches, is not just a tropical getaway but also a significant geostrategic arena where national and regional powers with their own vested interests come together. A decisive location along key international maritime routes linking the East of Asia to the Middle East has positioned the country in a pivotal position. The country’s role in maintaining the security and efficacy of global trade arteries is emphasised by its proximity to critical maritime chokepoints, from the Strait of Hormuz to the Strait of Malacca. Approximately 40% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Indian Ocean, making it a crucial artery for global energy security. The route from the Persian Gulf, through the Strait of Hormuz to the Indian Ocean, and then onward through the Strait of Malacca, is a critical path for transporting energy and other supplies back and forth to East Asia. Around 80% of global maritime trade by volume and 70% by value transit through the Indian Ocean, underscoring its importance for international commerce. Economies such as China, Japan, South Korea, and India heavily rely on these maritime routes for their trade.
The Maldives is situated in the Indian Ocean, namely along the eighth degree channel. These strategic sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) lie between India’s Minicoy Island and the Maldives, playing an integral part in maintaining the smooth operation of international maritime trade, particularly in facilitating the transit of vital energy resources. Control over or influence in this channel translates into a nation’s ability to secure maritime trade routes and project naval power across the Indian Ocean. Moreover, the Eight Degree Channel’s proximity to key regional players like India and Maldives further amplifies its strategic value, making it a focal point in the broader context of regional security and power dynamics. Given the heavy reliance on these routes for global trade, any disruption in the Maldives’ surrounding waters could have far-reaching economic implications in Europe and Asia. Moreover, the Maldives’ proximity to these busy maritime corridors makes it a pivotal player in regional security dynamics, necessitating robust maritime security measures to combat piracy, illegal fishing, and potential maritime terrorism. When it comes to demographics, although Maldives has a tiny and homogeneous population which promotes social unity, it has substantial governance challenges due to its scattered archipelagic geography and a past marked by political instability. It is thus the Maldives’ strategic positioning in the Indian Ocean, despite its small parameters, that accounts for its prominence.
India first or India out?
A defining theme in the landscape of Maldivian domestic politics is the persistent question of whether to align politically and economically with India or China. Geographically proximate and bound by historical ties, India has long been a key ally and primary responder to any crises in Maldives. This close relationship was particularly evident in 2008 when a pro-India candidate won the presidency, leading to enhanced defence cooperation agreements between the two nations. India’s support has included substantial aid and military assistance, positioning it as a pivotal partner in the Maldives’ stability and security. India’s strategic interests in Maldives are driven by its ‘Neighborhood First’ policy, which aims to maintain regional stability and counter Chinese influence in the Indian ocean. However, recent shifts in foreign policy under President Mohamed Muizzu suggest a significant pivot in the Maldives’ geopolitical orientation. Muizzu’s approach exemplifies a wider policy aimed at diversifying the Maldives’ international contacts, enhancing the country’s economic and strategic benefits.
The President’s administration has taken steps that indicate a departure from the traditionally strong ties with India. In less than a year of assuming office, he has implemented measures such as the removal of Indian military forces from Maldives. This shift is reminiscent of the ideas of his political mentor, former president, Abdulla Yameen, who inclined the Maldives towards a more favourable position towards China throughout his tenure. India’s complete evacuation of its last contingent of soldiers from the Maldives, adhering to the deadline set for 10 May 2024, has added strain to the diplomatic ties between the two neighbouring nations.
India has maintained its support for the Maldives, including humanitarian aid and disaster relief measures to strengthen its footprint in the region. Yet, India has also implemented proactive measures to preserve its influence in the area in reaction to these changes. In March 2024, the Indian Navy announced the reinforcement of its presence on strategically vital islands near the Maldives. For instance, it decided to establish a naval facility on Minicoy Island, which is in close proximity to the Maldives. Moreover, the newly commissioned INS Jatayu, operational since 6 March 2024, is situated in India’s Lakshadweep archipelago and functions as an independent maritime unit. This strategic move highlights India’s commitment to maintaining a vigilant posture and preempting potential threats in the region. With naval capabilities and monitoring activities from Minicoy Island, India is positioning itself in the Indian Ocean, in an effort to counterbalance China’s growing influence.
The Strategic Alignment and Maritime Cooperation Between China and the Maldives
China’s presence in the Maldives has steadily increased, marked by significant infrastructure initiatives such as the China–Maldives Friendship Bridge in 2018, valued at 200 million US dollars. The docking of the Chinese ocean research vessel Xiang Yang Hong 3 at a Maldives port further presents China’s growing presence. These developments suggest a deepening of Sino-Maldivian ties, raising concerns about the broader strategic implications for the region to other regional and international powers. China, through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is keen on strengthening its influence in the Maldives by reaffirming its commitment to infrastructure projects and economic investment. This approach aims to bolster China’s strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean as a critical region for global trade and energy routes. China may also propose enhanced maritime cooperation, which could be met with unease by other regional players like India.
The “String of Pearls” theory describes China’s strategic effort to establish a network of commercial and military bases along key maritime routes in the Indian Ocean. This network stretches from the Chinese mainland to the Horn of Africa, including key points like Gwadar Port in Pakistan, Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka, Chittagong Port in Bangladesh, Port of Kyaukpyu in Myanmar, and a military base in Djibouti. These “pearls” enhance China’s ability to secure its sea lines of communication, ensuring the free flow of energy and trade while potentially projecting power and influence in the region. The theory suggests that through these strategic points, China aims to enhance its maritime capabilities and influence, which some view as an attempt to encircle India and shift the regional power balance.
The Maldives, due to its strategic location along vital sea lanes, represents a potential key “pearl” in this network. By securing a foothold in the Maldives, China could complete its strategic arc, thereby strengthening its presence in the Indian Ocean and solidifying its geopolitical influence in the region. As China advances its interests in the Maldives, the risk of the nation becoming ensnared in debt traps emerges as a concern. The potential for economic dependency on China could lead to strategic concessions, thereby shifting the balance of power in the Indian Ocean region and impacting the sovereignty of the Maldives.
Climate Vulnerabilities
The Maldives is one of the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. With an average ground level of just 1.5 metres above sea level, rising ocean levels pose a severe threat to its existence. On 17 October 2009, the Maldives made an unprecedented statement to the world by holding an underwater parliament session. This bold move captured global attention and highlighted the existential threat posed by climate change. The event, led by then-President Mohamed Nasheed, sought to garner international attention to the pressing need for global action on climate change. The Maldives sits at an average of just 3.77 feet above sea level, making it highly susceptible to coastal erosion and rising sea levels. In 2018, scientists from the United States Geological Survey predicted that as much as 80% of the Maldives could be uninhabitable by 2050. Today, this historic event remains a powerful symbol of the Maldives’ unwavering commitment to combating climate change and advocating for the survival of low-lying island nations worldwide.
Furthermore, its low elevation and extreme vulnerability to climate change calls for the urgency for international cooperation and robust climate policies, positioning the Maldives as a vocal advocate for global climate action. This environmental precariousness should compel the international community to prioritise support for the Maldives. Yet, the reality of geopolitical manoeuvring often places short-term strategic interests above long-term environmental sustainability. This vulnerability has propelled the Maldives onto the global stage as a prominent advocate for climate action, amplifying its diplomatic influence and partnerships with other nations and organisations. The Maldives’ natural beauty attracts millions of tourists each year, contributing significantly to its economy. As a result, the country’s economic stability and development have implications not only for its own citizens but also for global tourism and investment. At the 60th Munich Security Conference, Minister of Foreign Affairs Moosa Zameer called for reforming the global financial architecture to simplify access to climate finance for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) like the Maldives. He advocated for the use of the Multidimensional Vulnerability Index (MVI) to enhance climate financing accessibility and emphasised the Maldives’ commitments to renewable energy and creating a zero-carbon ‘safe island.’ Additionally, he highlighted the importance of the new Loss and Damage Fund to support the most vulnerable nations affected by climate change.
The EU and the Maldives
The EU consistently advocates for robust global climate action and shares a mutual urgency with the Maldives in addressing climate change, as it has championed international agreements like the Paris Accord and regularly pledges financial and technical assistance to vulnerable nations. Both the EU and the Maldives have reaffirmed their commitment to deepening bilateral relations, evidenced by ongoing negotiations on a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. They also emphasise the importance of tax governance and civil society empowerment as pillars of democratic governance. Cooperation on global challenges such as climate change remains a priority for both parties, with a focus on sustainable economic recovery post Covid-19. The EU’s ambitious climate targets and Blue Economy Agenda are aligned with the Maldives’ goals for sustainable, low-carbon development. Both parties acknowledge the significance of upcoming UN conferences, including COP, biodiversity discussions, and negotiations on a global plastic agreement. They are committed to advancing the climate change agenda through close bilateral and multilateral cooperation. Apart from the EU, the Maldives government has entered a 37 million USD deal with Turkey to acquire military drones for patrolling its high seas, a task previously undertaken with Indian defence forces. The US, emphasising a free and open Indo-Pacific, supports efforts to enhance maritime security and counter-terrorism. It echoes the Maldives’ calls for greater climate action, aligning with initiatives aimed at addressing climate change and supporting adaptation measures.
The Path Ahead for Maldives
As a low-lying nation, the Maldives is acutely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, making robust policies for both adaptation and mitigation essential. The government must prioritise renewable energy initiatives, coastal protection strategies, and sustainable tourism practices to safeguard its invaluable natural resources. This landscape requires adeptly balancing relationships with major powers such as India and China, while simultaneously enhancing diplomatic ties with regional and global allies to uphold national sovereignty. The Maldivian population is already confronting the harsh realities of climate change, with rising sea levels posing an existential threat to their homeland. Approximately 300,000 individuals are at risk of losing their homes and may become climate change refugees, a demographic inadequately protected under existing international frameworks. Securing a safe refuge for its citizens must remain the Maldives’ foremost priority, ensuring their future amid escalating environmental challenges. Strengthening diplomatic relationships with regional and global partners should begin with a focus on environmental priorities, as the urgency of the situation demands immediate and collective action. Despite being the smallest country in Asia in terms of both population and size, the Maldives occupies a distinct position in the political landscape of the region. The relevance of this is recognized and upheld by the ongoing free trade agreements with the UK, the provision of surveillance drones by Turkey, and the implementation of debt relief measures offered by India. Nevertheless, amidst these favourable circumstances, the Maldives must give priority to its own coastlines. The primary objective of the nation should be to guarantee a secure haven for its residents, particularly in light of the increasing environmental hazards they encounter. The Maldives should enhance its diplomatic alliances with regional and global partners, with a focus on environmental concerns as the fundamental basis. Due to the pressing nature of the issue, it is imperative that prompt and collaborative measures are taken to ensure the future of the nation.
Author: Sajla Abdul Razack, EIAS Junior Researcher
Photo Credits: Pixabay